World Test Championship scenarios ahead of crucial upcoming period

World Test Championship Standings

Remaining World Test Championship Fixtures

First - India - 68.52% of possible points

Results: West Indies (away, 0-1, win), South Africa (away, 1-1, draw), England (away, 1-4, win)

Remaining series: Bangladesh (home, two Tests), New Zealand (home, three Tests), Australia (away, five Tests)

Best possible finish: 85.09%

India, the two-time finalists, currently lead the WTC25 standings with 68.52% of possible points. As one of the top contenders to secure a spot in the final at Lord’s, they will be determined to break their run of near misses.

After falling short in the 2021 and 2023 Finals, Rohit Sharma’s men will be driven by a strong desire to finally claim the title this time around.

India have been impressive in the current cycle, securing six wins from nine matches to claim the top spot in the standings. They kicked off their campaign with a 1-0 series victory over the West Indies, with the second match of the two-Test series ending in a rain-affected draw.

Their tour of South Africa presented a formidable challenge, particularly after they fell behind 1-0 in the opening Test. However, India displayed remarkable resilience, fighting back to level the two-match series at 1-1.

On home soil, where India are nearly unbeatable, England and their "Bazball" approach managed to breach their defences with a win in the opening Test. But India, undeterred, roared back in dominant fashion to claim a 4-1 series victory.

India have 10 matches remaining in this cycle, with half of them to be played at home. They are set to host Bangladesh later this month, followed by a visit from the Black Caps in October.

India have the opportunity to solidify their position for a WTC25 Final spot before their highly anticipated five-match Border-Gavaskar series in Australia. However, the outcome of this series could ultimately determine which teams claim the coveted top two spots.

The rivalry between India and Australia has become a modern classic. While India have held the Border-Gavaskar Trophy for nearly a decade, Australia have often prevailed in high-stakes encounters, including the World Test Championship Final in 2023 and the ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2023 Final.

Second - Australia - 62.50% of possible points

Results: England (away, 2-2, draw), Pakistan (home, 3-0, win), West Indies (home, 1-1, draw), New Zealand (away, 0-2, win)

Remaining series: India (home, five Tests), Sri Lanka (away, two Tests)

Best possible finish: 76.32%

Reigning World Test Championship holders Australia are on track for a second consecutive Final appearance. Under Pat Cummins, the already formidable Australian side has been transformed into a team of serial winners, and they will be hungry for more silverware to add to their collection.

Australia began the current World Test Championship cycle with a five-match series against their arch-rivals, England. They clinched victories in the first two Tests, both of which were nail-biting encounters, and secured a draw in the third. However, they were defeated in the final two matches by a spirited England side.

Returning to home turf, Australia dominated Pakistan with a 3-0 series sweep earlier this year, followed by a win against the West Indies. However, a Shamar Joseph special breached the Gabba and the Aussies as the hosts fell to defeat in the second Test of the series.

Australia quickly bounced back with a 2-0 victory over their Trans-Tasman rivals, New Zealand, securing the second spot in the standings. They have seven matches left in this cycle — five against India at home and two against Sri Lanka away.

While Australia may have triumphed over India on major occasions, reclaiming the Border-Gavaskar Trophy — which has eluded them for nearly a decade — will be a significant motivator. Additionally, India have won on their last two tours to Australia, a trend skipper Cummins will be keen to reverse this time around.

Third - New Zealand - 50% of possible points

Results: Bangladesh (away, 1-1, draw), South Africa (home, 2-0, won), Australia, (home, 0-2, lost)

Remaining series: Sri Lanka (away, two Tests), India (away, three Tests), England (home, three Tests)

Best possible finish: 78.57%

The 2021 ICC World Test Championship winners had a mixed run in the first half of their 2023-25 WTC campaign. A spirited display in Bangladesh earned them a draw, and while the side had little difficulty in brushing aside a second-string South Africa at home, they fell short against trans-Tasman rivals Australia in both of their home Tests.

This leaves Tim Southee’s side with a slightly tricky prospect, wherein they’d need to do well away from home in Sri Lanka and India, and then overcome a resurgent England at home.

While the spinners will have a crucial role to play in their Asian journey, out-of-the-box thinking and making the best use of home resources might help them overcome Ben Stokes’ England.

Fourth - Bangladesh - 45.83% of possible points

Results: New Zealand (home, 1-1, draw), Sri Lanka (home, 0-2, lost), Pakistan (away, 2-0, won)

Remaining Series: India (away, two Tests), South Africa (home, two Tests), West Indies (away, two Tests)

Best Possible Finish: 72.92%

A 2-0 clean sweep of Pakistan has propelled Bangladesh into the top four and neck-deep in the running for a World Test Championship Final spot.

In a dominating performance, Bangladesh won by six wickets in the second Test, winning their first ever Test series against Pakistan.

Bangladesh began the campaign with a victory over New Zealand in Sylhet, though dropped 12 home points with a defeat in the second match of the home series in Mirpur, falling for under 200 in both innings.

Two thumping defeats against Sri Lanka at home curtailed a 2025 trip to Lord's, though the inspiring series clean sweep of Pakistan has breathed new life in their campaign.

In spite of big first innings from both sides in the first Test in Rawalpindi, Bangladesh bundled the hosts out for just 146 in the second innings, before racing to a 10-wicket win. The Tigers were able to repeat the dose in the second match, even after day one of the Test was washed out.

Two home Test matches against South Africa down the stretch will be crucial in the Tigers' late push, and with Australia taking on India in a five-match series and eating away at each other's points, a Bangladesh top two finish is not out of the realms of possibility.

Fifth - Sri Lanka - 42.86% of possible points

Results: Pakistan (home, 0-2, lost), Bangladesh (away, 2-0, won), England (away, 1-2, lost)

Remaining Series: New Zealand (home, two Tests), South Africa (away, Two Tests), Australia (home, two Tests)

Best Possible Finish: 69.23%

A head-turning victory over England in the third Test in England means Sri Lanka could make a push for a spot in the World Test Championship Final.

Leapfrogging the English to move to fifth, the side play four of their final matches at home, and while they take on tough opponents New Zealand and Australia, there is opportunity to steal points from the pair who both sit above them.

Their spin attack will come in handy at home, though the fast bowlers at Dhananjaya de Silva's disposal have also proved to be effective, and will be crucial in an away tour of South Africa.

Sixth - England - 42.19% of possible points

Results: Australia (home, 2-2, draw), India (away, 1-4, lost), West Indies (home, 3-0, won), Sri Lanka (home, 2-1, won)

Remaining series: Pakistan (away, three Tests), New Zealand (away, three Tests)

Best possible finish: 57.95%

The shock loss to Sri Lanka in the third Test of their recent series at The Oval has put a huge dent in England's hopes of reaching next year's final, but there is still some hope for Ben Stokes' side.

With six Tests still to play - all away from home against Pakistan and then New Zealand - England have the opportunity to finish with as much as 57.95%, which would give them a chance of qualifying.

They will need other results to go their way though, with the battle for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy between Australia and England at the end of this year sure to be a series that England will be keeping a close eye on.

If England do fail to pick up maximum points from their remaining six Tests then it is going to be difficult for them to qualify.

Seventh - South Africa - 38.89% of possible points

Results: India (home, 1-1, draw), New Zealand (away, 0-2, lost) West Indies (away, 1-0, won)

Remaining series: Bangladesh (away, two Tests), Sri Lanka (home, two Tests), Pakistan (home, two Tests)

Best possible finish: 69.44%

The Proteas well and truly remain in the hunt despite setbacks against India and New Zealand in their first two WTC 2023-25 series. While South Africa couldn’t hold the advantage of a 1-0 lead against India, as Rohit Sharma’s side ended up drawing the series, a weak lineup fared even poorer in New Zealand, losing to the Black Caps for the first-ever time in Men’s Tests.

Their recent rendezvous against West Indies in the Caribbean was thus a relief for Temba Bavuma’s men, with a 1-0 win giving them a much-needed WTC boost.

The upcoming set of match-ups isn’t the worst from South Africa’s perspective. They have enough batting and spin-bowling talent in their ranks to overcome Bangladesh away, while their home ventures are with Asian sides against whom they’ve seen recent success in familiar conditions.

Eighth - Pakistan - 19.05% of possible points

Results: Sri Lanka (Away, 2-0, won), Australia (Away, 3-0, lost), Bangladesh (Home, 2-0, lost)

Remaining Series: England (home, three Tests), South Africa (away, two Tests), West Indies (home, two Tests)

Best Possible Finish: 59.52%

For new coach Jason Gillespie, the rest of the current World Test Championship cycle is to be seen more as a rebuild for the future.

Gillespie's tenure began with a shock loss to Bangladesh in the first Test at home and it worsened as the hosts conceded the series to Bangladesh, stretching their winless streak in home Tests to 10.

With three tough home assignments against England and an away series against the Proteas, Pakistan have their task cut out in the remainder of this WTC cycle.

They end the cycle with two more home Test matches against West Indies in early 2025.

Ninth - West Indies - 18.52% of possible points

Results: India (home, 0-1, defeat), Australia (away, 1-1, draw) England (away, 3-0, defeat) South Africa (home, 0-1, defeat)

Remaining Series: Bangladesh (home, two matches), Pakistan (away, two matches)

Best Possible Finish: 43.59%

Outside a moment of glory against Australia in Brisbane in early 2024, it's been a forgettable second World Test Championship cycle for the West Indies.

The men from the Caribbean dropped 20 of a possible 24 points in their home stand against India to begin the campaign, and lost the first Test in Australia by 10 wickets before the unlikely win at the Gabba in January.

Kraigg Brathwaite's men were unable to emulate the same success in England, losing all three matches heaviliy, before dropping 20 points in a home series against South Africa.